STORY
5
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Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
STORY
5
.
4
Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
STORY
5
.
4
Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Figure 1
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
People arriving
People leaving
Net climate mobility
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
People arriving
People leaving
Net climate mobility
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
Comparison of climate mobility in coastal areas under the Middle Road (SSP2- RCP4.5) and the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050
People arriving
People leaving
Net climate mobility
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
Coastal areas in the Dominican Republic will see population shifts as people leave rural communities and move towards cities such as Santo Domingo.
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Thousand
Over 357,000 people (Rocky Road scenario) could retreat from the coast in the Dominican Republic, leading to net population decline in these areas by 2050. However, some coastal areas could see new arrivals. The Dominican Republic ranks second in the region (Rocky Road scenario) after Venezuela in terms of the proportion of the population that could move into coastal zones, due to the economic prosperity of the coastal city Santo Domingo.
People Arriving
People Leaving
Light blue circles represent people arriving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 19,756 people). Dark blue circles represent people leaving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 46,393 people).
Figure 3
Coastal areas in the Dominican Republic will see population shifts as people leave rural communities and move towards cities such as Santo Domingo.
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Thousand
Over 357,000 people (Rocky Road scenario) could retreat from the coast in the Dominican Republic, leading to net population decline in these areas by 2050. However, some coastal areas could see new arrivals. The Dominican Republic ranks second in the region (Rocky Road scenario) after Venezuela in terms of the proportion of the population that could move into coastal zones, due to the economic prosperity of the coastal city Santo Domingo.
People Arriving
People Leaving
Light blue circles represent people arriving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 19,756 people). Dark blue circles represent people leaving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 46,393 people).
Figure 3
Coastal areas in the Dominican Republic will see population shifts as people leave rural communities and move towards cities such as Santo Domingo.
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Thousand
Over 357,000 people (Rocky Road scenario) could retreat from the coast in the Dominican Republic, leading to net population decline in these areas by 2050. However, some coastal areas could see new arrivals. The Dominican Republic ranks second in the region (Rocky Road scenario) after Venezuela in terms of the proportion of the population that could move into coastal zones, due to the economic prosperity of the coastal city Santo Domingo.
People Arriving
People Leaving
Light blue circles represent people arriving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 19,756 people). Dark blue circles represent people leaving due to climate change under the Rocky Road scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050 (1 - 46,393 people).
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
