5.4
Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
5.4
Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
5.4
Coastal Retreat
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
The Greater Caribbean's bounty lies in its marine ecosystems and beautiful coastlines. Consequently, people and economic activity have settled along the water’s edge.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Especially in the Caribbean islands, much of the population lives along the coast or participates in industries like fishing and tourism that rely on coastal ecosystems. Coastal areas are also most at risk from climate change, and the impacts are already being felt.
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Sea-level rise is causing erosion of the shoreline, while higher sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification endanger coral reefs and other aquatic ecosystems, and drive increasingly dangerous hurricanes and storms. Rainfall variability and saltwater intrusion are straining groundwater resources. The lack of potable drinking water is threatening people’s health and the continuous success of the tourism and agriculture industries.
Overall, coastal zones are expected to experience a worse economic decline than inland areas - especially in larger countries like Venezuela, Honduras, Colombia and Mexico. However, given that they start from a higher level of wealth, coastal areas will still be relatively better off - in terms of GDP per capita - than the region’s rural areas. By 2050, the rural poverty rate is projected to be over three times higher than in coastal zones, while extreme poverty could be ten times higher.
By 2050, up to 6.2 million people could leave coastal areas (Rocky Road scenario).
Figure 1
Climate damages will drive net coastal retreat in every country except Venezuela.
Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in coastal areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050
In-migration
Out-migration
Climate Net Migration
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Climate damages will drive net coastal retreat in every country except Venezuela.
Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in coastal areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050
In-migration
Out-migration
Climate Net Migration
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Climate damages will drive net coastal retreat in every country except Venezuela.
Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in coastal areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050
In-migration
Out-migration
Climate Net Migration
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Across the region, rising temperatures and hurricanes are projected to be the main drivers of climate mobility. However, in coastal areas the impacts of other hazards are growing apparent. Rising sea-level accounts for almost all projected climate mobility in The Bahamas (95%), and over half of those moving (60%) in Suriname and Belize. Coral bleaching will also have a major influence by degrading the tourism economy, prompting coastal out-migration in Cuba, Costa Rica, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
By 2050, over 75% of climate mobility in the region will be away from coastal areas. However, some coastal areas will see population redistribution, rather than total retreat.
Maps of net migration in coastal zones, insets clockwise from upper left: Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominican Republic; Belize, Guatemala, Honduras; the Lesser Antilles; and Columbia and Venezuela.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
Not all countries will experience total retreat from the shoreline, however. For instance, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, home to large coastal cities, will see a redistribution rather than a net loss of population along the coastline, as people from coastal villages relocate to nearby cities. Many coastal residents will be unable to move. By 2050, up to 2.2 million people (Rocky Road scenario) living in coastal areas could be immobile as a result of climate impacts.
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