6.1
No Regional Exodus
Of the 8.2 million people who could be on the move because of climate impacts, almost 6 million will resettle in their countries of origin. Far fewer will leave the region.
6.1
No Regional Exodus
Of the 8.2 million people who could be on the move because of climate impacts, almost 6 million will resettle in their countries of origin. Far fewer will leave the region.
6.1
No Regional Exodus
Of the 8.2 million people who could be on the move because of climate impacts, almost 6 million will resettle in their countries of origin. Far fewer will leave the region.
Figure 1
Most people forced to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Climate out-migration (in millions) at the local, national, and international level for different climate scenarios by 2050.
SSP1-RCP2.6
SSP2-RCP4.5
SSP3-RCP7.0
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Most people forced to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Climate out-migration (in millions) at the local, national, and international level for different climate scenarios by 2050.
SSP1-RCP2.6
SSP2-RCP4.5
SSP3-RCP7.0
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Most people forced to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Climate out-migration (in millions) at the local, national, and international level for different climate scenarios by 2050.
SSP1-RCP2.6
SSP2-RCP4.5
SSP3-RCP7.0
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Most people driven to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Most people driven to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Most people driven to move due to climate change impacts are projected to resettle within their home countries.
Most of this internal climate mobility will occur in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia, where people can escape climate hazards without crossing a national border. Smaller nations, like Suriname and The Bahamas, will see a larger share of their populations forced to move. In Venezuela and the Dominican Republic internal climate mobility will be high both in absolute numbers and as a share of their national populations.
Most of this internal climate mobility will occur in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia, where people can escape climate hazards without crossing a national border. Smaller nations, like Suriname and The Bahamas, will see a larger share of their populations forced to move. In Venezuela and the Dominican Republic internal climate mobility will be high both in absolute numbers and as a share of their national populations.
Most of this internal climate mobility will occur in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia, where people can escape climate hazards without crossing a national border. Smaller nations, like Suriname and The Bahamas, will see a larger share of their populations forced to move. In Venezuela and the Dominican Republic internal climate mobility will be high both in absolute numbers and as a share of their national populations.
Figure 2
The impact of internal movement will be greater for some countries than others. Suriname will see the greatest share of its population relocate internally.
Distribution of internal climate mobility as a proportion of the total population by country, cumulative for 2050.
Local
National
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
The impact of internal movement will be greater for some countries than others. Suriname will see the greatest share of its population relocate internally.
Distribution of internal climate mobility as a proportion of the total population by country, cumulative for 2050.
Local
National
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
The impact of internal movement will be greater for some countries than others. Suriname will see the greatest share of its population relocate internally.
Distribution of internal climate mobility as a proportion of the total population by country, cumulative for 2050.
Local
National
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
People who move across borders will mainly go to traditional destination countries outside the region.
People who move across borders will mainly go to traditional destination countries outside the region.
People who move across borders will mainly go to traditional destination countries outside the region.
Approximately 30% of people who move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean by 2050 will resettle abroad, amounting to 2.4 million people under the Rocky Road scenario. The number of international migrants could be significantly smaller, only about 1.5 million, if global warming is limited to below 2ºC under the Middle Road scenario.
International climate mobility will be highly relevant for some countries in the region. Following current emigration trends in pursuit of education and work abroad, most climate migrants from SIDS are projected to resettle internationally. The populations of Suriname and Guyana could shrink by up to 5% due to climate-forced emigration by 2050. The largest share of international climate mobility from the Greater Caribbean region is expected to come from Mexico, although most Mexicans who move due to climate impacts will resettle within the country.
Approximately 30% of people who move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean by 2050 will resettle abroad, amounting to 2.4 million people under the Rocky Road scenario. The number of international migrants could be significantly smaller, only about 1.5 million, if global warming is limited to below 2ºC under the Middle Road scenario.
International climate mobility will be highly relevant for some countries in the region. Following current emigration trends in pursuit of education and work abroad, most climate migrants from SIDS are projected to resettle internationally. The populations of Suriname and Guyana could shrink by up to 5% due to climate-forced emigration by 2050. The largest share of international climate mobility from the Greater Caribbean region is expected to come from Mexico, although most Mexicans who move due to climate impacts will resettle within the country.
Approximately 30% of people who move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean by 2050 will resettle abroad, amounting to 2.4 million people under the Rocky Road scenario. The number of international migrants could be significantly smaller, only about 1.5 million, if global warming is limited to below 2ºC under the Middle Road scenario.
International climate mobility will be highly relevant for some countries in the region. Following current emigration trends in pursuit of education and work abroad, most climate migrants from SIDS are projected to resettle internationally. The populations of Suriname and Guyana could shrink by up to 5% due to climate-forced emigration by 2050. The largest share of international climate mobility from the Greater Caribbean region is expected to come from Mexico, although most Mexicans who move due to climate impacts will resettle within the country.
Figure 3
The United States will be the top destination for climate migrants who leave their home countries in the Greater Caribbean
Top 10 international destinations for Greater Caribbean climate migrants under the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenario by 2050.
United States of America
Canada
Spain
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Other
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
The United States will be the top destination for climate migrants who leave their home countries in the Greater Caribbean
Top 10 international destinations for Greater Caribbean climate migrants under the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenario by 2050.
United States of America
Canada
Spain
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Other
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
The United States will be the top destination for climate migrants who leave their home countries in the Greater Caribbean
Top 10 international destinations for Greater Caribbean climate migrants under the Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenario by 2050.
United States of America
Canada
Spain
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Other
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Most international climate mobility originating in the region can be expected to go to destinations outside the Greater Caribbean, following historically significant migration channels to North America and Europe. The young (20-39 year olds) are expected to be overrepresented in those international movements. The United States is projected to be the top destination among international climate migrants from the region, followed by Canada and Spain. For migrants who remain in the Greater Caribbean, Costa Rica will be the top destination.
Climate mobility makes up a small fraction of total international migration within and from the region over the next few decades. It will account for less than 10% of the total, documented migration that is expected to reach the United States by 2050 (Rocky Road scenario). Other drivers, such as employment and education are likely to remain key motivations for emigration from the Greater Caribbean to other regions of the world.
Most international climate mobility originating in the region can be expected to go to destinations outside the Greater Caribbean, following historically significant migration channels to North America and Europe. The young (20-39 year olds) are expected to be overrepresented in those international movements. The United States is projected to be the top destination among international climate migrants from the region, followed by Canada and Spain. For migrants who remain in the Greater Caribbean, Costa Rica will be the top destination.
Climate mobility makes up a small fraction of total international migration within and from the region over the next few decades. It will account for less than 10% of the total, documented migration that is expected to reach the United States by 2050 (Rocky Road scenario). Other drivers, such as employment and education are likely to remain key motivations for emigration from the Greater Caribbean to other regions of the world.
Most international climate mobility originating in the region can be expected to go to destinations outside the Greater Caribbean, following historically significant migration channels to North America and Europe. The young (20-39 year olds) are expected to be overrepresented in those international movements. The United States is projected to be the top destination among international climate migrants from the region, followed by Canada and Spain. For migrants who remain in the Greater Caribbean, Costa Rica will be the top destination.
Climate mobility makes up a small fraction of total international migration within and from the region over the next few decades. It will account for less than 10% of the total, documented migration that is expected to reach the United States by 2050 (Rocky Road scenario). Other drivers, such as employment and education are likely to remain key motivations for emigration from the Greater Caribbean to other regions of the world.
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