5.3

Resilient Cities

Large cities will attract climate mobility while smaller cities serve as launch pads for international migration.

5.3

Resilient Cities

Large cities will attract climate mobility while smaller cities serve as launch pads for international migration.

5.3

Resilient Cities

Large cities will attract climate mobility while smaller cities serve as launch pads for international migration.

The cities of the Greater Caribbean region have long provided refuge and a place to resettle.

The cities of the Greater Caribbean region have long provided refuge and a place to resettle.

The cities of the Greater Caribbean region have long provided refuge and a place to resettle.

A rush of rural-urban migration starting in the 1980s has fueled population growth in cities, particularly in Mexico and Central America. Cities continue to be important destinations for climate mobility, offering economic opportunities away from agriculture. 

A rush of rural-urban migration starting in the 1980s has fueled population growth in cities, particularly in Mexico and Central America. Cities continue to be important destinations for climate mobility, offering economic opportunities away from agriculture. 

A rush of rural-urban migration starting in the 1980s has fueled population growth in cities, particularly in Mexico and Central America. Cities continue to be important destinations for climate mobility, offering economic opportunities away from agriculture. 

Finding work in the city is a strategy, usually pursued by young men, to diversify family incomes. In Colombia and Costa Rica, this practice is common, both as a temporary stopgap and permanent arrangement. For others, like hurricane survivors in the Bahamas, moving to the city is a last resort after their homes were damaged beyond repair. 

Future climate change will amplify these movement patterns. Over the next several decades, more diversified economies will insulate large cities from the worst impacts of climate change and make them comparatively more resilient. Unsurprisingly, they are projected to become the resettlement option of choice for people leaving rural areas. The region’s 11 largest cities are all projected to be key climate mobility destinations.

Across Central America, with the exception of Belize, more people are expected to arrive in metropolitan areas than leave them. The same is true for Colombia. The region’s major cities will thus be confronted with the dual challenge of adapting to climate change and meeting the needs of current residents while planning for future population growth and the inclusion of newcomers.

Finding work in the city is a strategy, usually pursued by young men, to diversify family incomes. In Colombia and Costa Rica, this practice is common, both as a temporary stopgap and permanent arrangement. For others, like hurricane survivors in the Bahamas, moving to the city is a last resort after their homes were damaged beyond repair. 

Future climate change will amplify these movement patterns. Over the next several decades, more diversified economies will insulate large cities from the worst impacts of climate change and make them comparatively more resilient. Unsurprisingly, they are projected to become the resettlement option of choice for people leaving rural areas. The region’s 11 largest cities are all projected to be key climate mobility destinations.

Across Central America, with the exception of Belize, more people are expected to arrive in metropolitan areas than leave them. The same is true for Colombia. The region’s major cities will thus be confronted with the dual challenge of adapting to climate change and meeting the needs of current residents while planning for future population growth and the inclusion of newcomers.

Finding work in the city is a strategy, usually pursued by young men, to diversify family incomes. In Colombia and Costa Rica, this practice is common, both as a temporary stopgap and permanent arrangement. For others, like hurricane survivors in the Bahamas, moving to the city is a last resort after their homes were damaged beyond repair. 

Future climate change will amplify these movement patterns. Over the next several decades, more diversified economies will insulate large cities from the worst impacts of climate change and make them comparatively more resilient. Unsurprisingly, they are projected to become the resettlement option of choice for people leaving rural areas. The region’s 11 largest cities are all projected to be key climate mobility destinations.

Across Central America, with the exception of Belize, more people are expected to arrive in metropolitan areas than leave them. The same is true for Colombia. The region’s major cities will thus be confronted with the dual challenge of adapting to climate change and meeting the needs of current residents while planning for future population growth and the inclusion of newcomers.

Figure 1

Climate mobility will drive population growth in the region’s 11 largest cities. Smaller cities will lose population.

Under future climate change, primary cities (marked in blue) will gain population and secondary cities will lose population.

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Climate mobility will drive population growth in the region’s 11 largest cities. Smaller cities will lose population.

Under future climate change, primary cities (marked in blue) will gain population and secondary cities will lose population.

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Climate mobility will drive population growth in the region’s 11 largest cities. Smaller cities will lose population.

Under future climate change, primary cities (marked in blue) will gain population and secondary cities will lose population.

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Population Influx to Medellín Amid Climate Change

Figure 2

People Arriving

The expected number of people arriving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

Population Influx to Medellín Amid Climate Change

People Arriving

The expected number of people arriving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

Population Influx to Medellín Amid Climate Change

People Arriving

The expected number of people arriving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

The Dual Impact of Climate Migration on Barranquilla

Figure 3

People Arriving

People Leaving

The expected number of people arriving & leaving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

The Dual Impact of Climate Migration on Barranquilla

People Arriving

People Leaving

The expected number of people arriving & leaving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

The Dual Impact of Climate Migration on Barranquilla

People Arriving

People Leaving

The expected number of people arriving & leaving due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

However, smaller cities could lose population due to climate impacts. Cities in the region - especially coastal ones - face their own climate challenges, including threats from sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and droughts. Impervious infrastructure and building materials, as well as high housing informality heighten the risk of urban populations to hazards such as flooding. 

Urban areas in some countries will serve as points of departure for international migration, as people flee climate damage and seek employment and education opportunities abroad. Across the Caribbean SIDS, Mexico, Belize, Suriname, and Guyana, urban populations are expected to decline as a result of the economic impacts of climate change.

However, smaller cities could lose population due to climate impacts. Cities in the region - especially coastal ones - face their own climate challenges, including threats from sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and droughts. Impervious infrastructure and building materials, as well as high housing informality heighten the risk of urban populations to hazards such as flooding. 

Urban areas in some countries will serve as points of departure for international migration, as people flee climate damage and seek employment and education opportunities abroad. Across the Caribbean SIDS, Mexico, Belize, Suriname, and Guyana, urban populations are expected to decline as a result of the economic impacts of climate change.

However, smaller cities could lose population due to climate impacts. Cities in the region - especially coastal ones - face their own climate challenges, including threats from sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and droughts. Impervious infrastructure and building materials, as well as high housing informality heighten the risk of urban populations to hazards such as flooding. 

Urban areas in some countries will serve as points of departure for international migration, as people flee climate damage and seek employment and education opportunities abroad. Across the Caribbean SIDS, Mexico, Belize, Suriname, and Guyana, urban populations are expected to decline as a result of the economic impacts of climate change.

Share

Copy Link

Share

Copy Link

Share

Copy Link

Next up:

5.4

Coastal Retreat

Next up:

5.4

Coastal Retreat

Next up:

5.4

Coastal Retreat

Stories

About

Data Explorer

Agenda for Action

Gallery

An initiative by
Designed and developed by

Stories

About

Data Explorer

Agenda for Action

Gallery

An initiative by
Designed and developed by
An initiative by
Designed and developed by
EN

Get Report

EN