5.2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

5.2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

5.2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Figure 1

Most countries will lose population in rural areas, as people flee climate impacts.

Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in rural areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050

In-migration

Out-migration

Climate Net Migration

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Most countries will lose population in rural areas, as people flee climate impacts.

Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in rural areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050

In-migration

Out-migration

Climate Net Migration

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Most countries will lose population in rural areas, as people flee climate impacts.

Climate In-migration, out-migration, and net migration in rural areas under the Rocky Road scenario (RCP 7.0.) by 2050

In-migration

Out-migration

Climate Net Migration

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Climate change poses severe economic risks for Belize.

Figure 2

GDP Loss

The percentage of GDP loss due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

Climate change poses severe economic risks for Belize.

GDP Loss

The percentage of GDP loss due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

Climate change poses severe economic risks for Belize.

GDP Loss

The percentage of GDP loss due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

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Resilient Cities

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