A person wearing a cap and t-shirt is using a shovel to work in a lush green farm, surrounded by dense plants and trees, possibly in a tropical setting. The sky is overcast, creating a calm, natural atmosphere.

STORY

5

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2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

A person wearing a cap and t-shirt is using a shovel to work in a lush green farm, surrounded by dense plants and trees, possibly in a tropical setting. The sky is overcast, creating a calm, natural atmosphere.

STORY

5

.

2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

A person wearing a cap and t-shirt is using a shovel to work in a lush green farm, surrounded by dense plants and trees, possibly in a tropical setting. The sky is overcast, creating a calm, natural atmosphere.

STORY

5

.

2

Rural Plight

Rural areas will see the heaviest impacts from climate change resulting in population decline.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Agriculture is a lifeline for rural communities, sustaining livelihoods across the region. Absent drastic mitigation, adaptation, and livelihood diversification, climate change will be disastrous for agricultural communities in the Greater Caribbean.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Every country is projected to see people move out of rural areas by 2050. Of the 2.5 million people that could be pushed into poverty over that period, up to 2.2 million will live in rural areas.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Already today, climate change is negatively affecting harvests and forcing farmers to reconsider where and how to cultivate crops. Farmers in Antigua and Barbuda report adding more synthetic nutrients to soil to combat extreme heat, while others have seen lost yields from groundwater salinization. Decline in agricultural output also exacerbates food insecurity for rural households, which is already driving migration in the region. [1]

In Colombia, subsistence farmers reported having to relocate in order to feed their families after flooding killed their livestock. By 2050, projected losses in the agriculture sector could amount to almost 30% of regional GDP under the Rocky Road scenario. Each country, except for Dominica, will see more severe impacts to GDP per capita in rural areas than the national average. Economic decline could be especially pronounced for rural areas in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Figure 1

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

People arriving

People leaving

Net climate mobility

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

People arriving

People leaving

Net climate mobility

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 1

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

Comparison of climate mobility in rural areas under the Middle Road (SSP2-RCP4.5) and Rocky Road (SSP3-RCP7.0) scenarios by 2050

People arriving

People leaving

Net climate mobility

Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.

Figure 2

Rural areas of Belize face economic risks as climate change accelerates.

Toledo and Stann Creek Districts, Belize

0

%

By 2050, Belize could lose 29% of its GDP in rural areas (Rocky Road scenario). The Stann Creek and Toledo districts could be hotspots for agricultural decline. The Indigenous Garífuna and Maya populations in these districts, many of whom rely on subsistence farming, could be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts in these areas.

GDP Loss

Pink circles represent projected GDP per capita loss due to climate change under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, ranging from 7% (smallest circles) - 86% (largest circles) GDP loss.

Figure 2

Rural areas of Belize face economic risks as climate change accelerates.

Toledo and Stann Creek Districts, Belize

0

%

By 2050, Belize could lose 29% of its GDP in rural areas (Rocky Road scenario). The Stann Creek and Toledo districts could be hotspots for agricultural decline. The Indigenous Garífuna and Maya populations in these districts, many of whom rely on subsistence farming, could be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts in these areas.

GDP Loss

Pink circles represent projected GDP per capita loss due to climate change under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, ranging from 7% (smallest circles) - 86% (largest circles) GDP loss.

Figure 2

Rural areas of Belize face economic risks as climate change accelerates.

Toledo and Stann Creek Districts, Belize

0

%

By 2050, Belize could lose 29% of its GDP in rural areas (Rocky Road scenario). The Stann Creek and Toledo districts could be hotspots for agricultural decline. The Indigenous Garífuna and Maya populations in these districts, many of whom rely on subsistence farming, could be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts in these areas.

GDP Loss

Pink circles represent projected GDP per capita loss due to climate change under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, ranging from 7% (smallest circles) - 86% (largest circles) GDP loss.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

As people leave flood and drought-prone farmlands, settlement patterns in the region will be reshaped. Guyana is projected to see the most significant rural population decline with nearly 10% of its rural population projected to move by 2050. Rural communities in Belize, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, and Grenada are also projected to see declines. However, some agricultural villages and towns could be replenished by new arrivals, such as in Suriname, The Bahamas, Haiti, and Costa Rica, where coastal populations are projected to turn inland to escape hazards, particularly sea-level rise.

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

References
  1. Pons, D. (2021, February 18). Climate Extremes, Food Insecurity, and Migration in Central America: A Complicated Nexus - Guatemala | ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/climate-extremes-food-insecurity-and-migration-central-america-complicated-nexus

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