5.1
Shifting Fortunes
Global climate action and inclusive development can reduce climate-forced migration in the Greater Caribbean.
5.1
Shifting Fortunes
Global climate action and inclusive development can reduce climate-forced migration in the Greater Caribbean.
5.1
Shifting Fortunes
Global climate action and inclusive development can reduce climate-forced migration in the Greater Caribbean.
The GCCMI used advanced modelling to explore future scenarios of climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean region. The modeling accounts for three possible futures. Each considers different levels of global cooperation on climate action and economic development.
The GCCMI used advanced modelling to explore future scenarios of climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean region. The modeling accounts for three possible futures. Each considers different levels of global cooperation on climate action and economic development.
The GCCMI used advanced modelling to explore future scenarios of climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean region. The modeling accounts for three possible futures. Each considers different levels of global cooperation on climate action and economic development.
Green Road: SSP1-RCP2.6
Green Road: SSP1-RCP2.6
Green Road: SSP1-RCP2.6
This scenario assumes global and regional cooperation on the adoption of low carbon technologies and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. The emissions target set out by the Paris Agreement, of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC by 2050, is achieved. Development and growth is more equitable and inclusive enabling the reduction of inequality between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region.
This scenario assumes global and regional cooperation on the adoption of low carbon technologies and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. The emissions target set out by the Paris Agreement, of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC by 2050, is achieved. Development and growth is more equitable and inclusive enabling the reduction of inequality between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region.
This scenario assumes global and regional cooperation on the adoption of low carbon technologies and a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. The emissions target set out by the Paris Agreement, of limiting global warming to 1.5ºC by 2050, is achieved. Development and growth is more equitable and inclusive enabling the reduction of inequality between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region.
Middle Road: SSP2-RCP4.5
Middle Road: SSP2-RCP4.5
Middle Road: SSP2-RCP4.5
In this scenario, global development (social, economic, technological etc.) and population growth follow a trajectory that resembles historical patterns. There is some, albeit slow, progress and cooperation on the Sustainable Development Goals and warming is mitigated to below 2ºC by 2050. However, inequality persists between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region. Climate change continues to disproportionately impact vulnerable groups. By 2050, 6.4 million people could leave their homes and almost 5 million could be immobile due to climate impacts underpin this scenario.
In this scenario, global development (social, economic, technological etc.) and population growth follow a trajectory that resembles historical patterns. There is some, albeit slow, progress and cooperation on the Sustainable Development Goals and warming is mitigated to below 2ºC by 2050. However, inequality persists between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region. Climate change continues to disproportionately impact vulnerable groups. By 2050, 6.4 million people could leave their homes and almost 5 million could be immobile due to climate impacts underpin this scenario.
In this scenario, global development (social, economic, technological etc.) and population growth follow a trajectory that resembles historical patterns. There is some, albeit slow, progress and cooperation on the Sustainable Development Goals and warming is mitigated to below 2ºC by 2050. However, inequality persists between and within countries in the Greater Caribbean region. Climate change continues to disproportionately impact vulnerable groups. By 2050, 6.4 million people could leave their homes and almost 5 million could be immobile due to climate impacts underpin this scenario.
Rocky Road: SSP3-RCP4.5
Rocky Road: SSP3-RCP4.5
Rocky Road: SSP3-RCP4.5
This is a “regional rivalry” scenario, in which national action turns inwards, primarily focused on domestic and regional security agendas, rather than broader international cooperation goals. The world fails to mitigate emissions and warms beyond 2ºC. The consequences are devastating for the ecosystems and economies of Greater Caribbean countries, especially the SIDS. Economic development is slow and inequality remains high. The outcome is that climate mobility increases by 28% compared to the Middle Road scenario. By 2050, 8.2 million people in the Greater Caribbean region are projected to have permanently relocated.
This is a “regional rivalry” scenario, in which national action turns inwards, primarily focused on domestic and regional security agendas, rather than broader international cooperation goals. The world fails to mitigate emissions and warms beyond 2ºC. The consequences are devastating for the ecosystems and economies of Greater Caribbean countries, especially the SIDS. Economic development is slow and inequality remains high. The outcome is that climate mobility increases by 28% compared to the Middle Road scenario. By 2050, 8.2 million people in the Greater Caribbean region are projected to have permanently relocated.
This is a “regional rivalry” scenario, in which national action turns inwards, primarily focused on domestic and regional security agendas, rather than broader international cooperation goals. The world fails to mitigate emissions and warms beyond 2ºC. The consequences are devastating for the ecosystems and economies of Greater Caribbean countries, especially the SIDS. Economic development is slow and inequality remains high. The outcome is that climate mobility increases by 28% compared to the Middle Road scenario. By 2050, 8.2 million people in the Greater Caribbean region are projected to have permanently relocated.
The different economic and mobility outcomes projected by the model underscore the importance of ambitious regional climate action and inclusive economic development.
The different economic and mobility outcomes projected by the model underscore the importance of ambitious regional climate action and inclusive economic development.
The different economic and mobility outcomes projected by the model underscore the importance of ambitious regional climate action and inclusive economic development.
As climate change accelerates, some countries, economic sectors, and populations will fare worse than others.
As climate change accelerates, some countries, economic sectors, and populations will fare worse than others.
As climate change accelerates, some countries, economic sectors, and populations will fare worse than others.
Figure 1
Climate change will lead to GDP loss throughout the region, with the most extreme losses occurring in low-lying and coastal areas.
Percent Changes in GDP under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
2030
2050
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Climate change will lead to GDP loss throughout the region, with the most extreme losses occurring in low-lying and coastal areas.
Percent Changes in GDP under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
2030
2050
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 1
Climate change will lead to GDP loss throughout the region, with the most extreme losses occurring in low-lying and coastal areas.
Percent Changes in GDP under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
2030
2050
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
The economic impacts of climate change will not be evenly distributed, with some places experiencing more extreme losses than others. Northern South America, particularly Venezuela, Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, are projected to see losses of between 25-35% of GDP under the Rocky Road scenario.
An even larger decline might be experienced in low-lying areas, like the Yucatan peninsula and northern Colombia, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, Venezuela, and coastal Suriname and Guyana, which could lose more than half of their GDP.
The economic impacts of climate change will not be evenly distributed, with some places experiencing more extreme losses than others. Northern South America, particularly Venezuela, Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, are projected to see losses of between 25-35% of GDP under the Rocky Road scenario.
An even larger decline might be experienced in low-lying areas, like the Yucatan peninsula and northern Colombia, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, Venezuela, and coastal Suriname and Guyana, which could lose more than half of their GDP.
The economic impacts of climate change will not be evenly distributed, with some places experiencing more extreme losses than others. Northern South America, particularly Venezuela, Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, are projected to see losses of between 25-35% of GDP under the Rocky Road scenario.
An even larger decline might be experienced in low-lying areas, like the Yucatan peninsula and northern Colombia, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, Venezuela, and coastal Suriname and Guyana, which could lose more than half of their GDP.
Figure 2
Over the next two decades, GDP will decline and prices will rise, especially in the agricultural sector.
Percent Changes in GDP and Prices under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
Agriculture Sector (GDP)
Industry Sector (GDP)
Services Sector (GDP)
Agriculture Sector (prices)
Industry Sector (prices)
Services Sector (prices)
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
Over the next two decades, GDP will decline and prices will rise, especially in the agricultural sector.
Percent Changes in GDP and Prices under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
Agriculture Sector (GDP)
Industry Sector (GDP)
Services Sector (GDP)
Agriculture Sector (prices)
Industry Sector (prices)
Services Sector (prices)
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 2
Over the next two decades, GDP will decline and prices will rise, especially in the agricultural sector.
Percent Changes in GDP and Prices under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) for 2030 and 2050.
Agriculture Sector (GDP)
Industry Sector (GDP)
Services Sector (GDP)
Agriculture Sector (prices)
Industry Sector (prices)
Services Sector (prices)
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
GDP impacts will not be evenly distributed. Some countries will see disproportionately high losses.
Percent Changes in GDP per capita by Countries for the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0).
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
GDP impacts will not be evenly distributed. Some countries will see disproportionately high losses.
Percent Changes in GDP per capita by Countries for the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0).
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 3
GDP impacts will not be evenly distributed. Some countries will see disproportionately high losses.
Percent Changes in GDP per capita by Countries for the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0).
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Climate change is projected to deepen poverty and widen inequality across the Greater Caribbean, as both agricultural productivity and industry decline. By 2050, climate change alone could push some 2 to 2.5 million additional adults into poverty. If warming exceeds 2ºC, regional GDP could fall by 20% (Rocky Road scenario) within the same period, 7% more than under the Middle Road scenario.
Some of the lowest-income countries in the region, such as Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname, The Bahamas, and Nicaragua will also be hard hit with declines of over 20% of GDP. The result is a widening of inequalities within and between Greater Caribbean countries and communities and migration out of hard hit areas.
Climate change is projected to deepen poverty and widen inequality across the Greater Caribbean, as both agricultural productivity and industry decline. By 2050, climate change alone could push some 2 to 2.5 million additional adults into poverty. If warming exceeds 2ºC, regional GDP could fall by 20% (Rocky Road scenario) within the same period, 7% more than under the Middle Road scenario.
Some of the lowest-income countries in the region, such as Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname, The Bahamas, and Nicaragua will also be hard hit with declines of over 20% of GDP. The result is a widening of inequalities within and between Greater Caribbean countries and communities and migration out of hard hit areas.
Climate change is projected to deepen poverty and widen inequality across the Greater Caribbean, as both agricultural productivity and industry decline. By 2050, climate change alone could push some 2 to 2.5 million additional adults into poverty. If warming exceeds 2ºC, regional GDP could fall by 20% (Rocky Road scenario) within the same period, 7% more than under the Middle Road scenario.
Some of the lowest-income countries in the region, such as Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname, The Bahamas, and Nicaragua will also be hard hit with declines of over 20% of GDP. The result is a widening of inequalities within and between Greater Caribbean countries and communities and migration out of hard hit areas.
Figure 4
Climate mobility follows a similar pattern to economic damage, with more people leaving areas prone to economic decline and arriving in places with higher resilience.
Net migration (out-migration minus in-migration) across the region under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 4
Climate mobility follows a similar pattern to economic damage, with more people leaving areas prone to economic decline and arriving in places with higher resilience.
Net migration (out-migration minus in-migration) across the region under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
Figure 4
Climate mobility follows a similar pattern to economic damage, with more people leaving areas prone to economic decline and arriving in places with higher resilience.
Net migration (out-migration minus in-migration) across the region under the Rocky Road Scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050.
Source: GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2024.
By 2050, modeling projections indicate that between 6.4 million (Middle Road) and 8.2 million people (Rocky Road) could move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean.
By 2050, modeling projections indicate that between 6.4 million (Middle Road) and 8.2 million people (Rocky Road) could move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean.
By 2050, modeling projections indicate that between 6.4 million (Middle Road) and 8.2 million people (Rocky Road) could move permanently due to climate change in the Greater Caribbean.
People are projected to leave rural and low-lying coastal areas, resettling in-land and in large cities. Yet, the projected 28% increase in out-migration between the Middle Road and Rocky Road scenarios underscores the dramatic impact that global warming over 2ºC and a less favorable development outlook could have on mobility in the Caribbean.
Striving for the Middle Road scenario would require faster global emission reductions as well as increased solidarity within the Greater Caribbean region and by the international community. Regional cooperation on people-centered adaptation and risk mitigation is imperative to protect peoples’ right to stay.
People are projected to leave rural and low-lying coastal areas, resettling in-land and in large cities. Yet, the projected 28% increase in out-migration between the Middle Road and Rocky Road scenarios underscores the dramatic impact that global warming over 2ºC and a less favorable development outlook could have on mobility in the Caribbean.
Striving for the Middle Road scenario would require faster global emission reductions as well as increased solidarity within the Greater Caribbean region and by the international community. Regional cooperation on people-centered adaptation and risk mitigation is imperative to protect peoples’ right to stay.
People are projected to leave rural and low-lying coastal areas, resettling in-land and in large cities. Yet, the projected 28% increase in out-migration between the Middle Road and Rocky Road scenarios underscores the dramatic impact that global warming over 2ºC and a less favorable development outlook could have on mobility in the Caribbean.
Striving for the Middle Road scenario would require faster global emission reductions as well as increased solidarity within the Greater Caribbean region and by the international community. Regional cooperation on people-centered adaptation and risk mitigation is imperative to protect peoples’ right to stay.
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