Climate Risks

Temperature Change

Projections of the effect of temperature change on mobility

Climate Risks

Temperature Change

Projections of the effect of temperature change on mobility

Total numbers leaving and arriving per pixel (local, national, international)

-10k

0

+10k

Total numbers leaving and arriving per pixel (local, national, international)

-10k

0

+10k

40
40

%

people displaced by climate change by 2030 will be driven by temperature change

people displaced by climate change by 2030 will be driven by temperature change

35
35

%

%

people displaced by climate change by 2050 will be driven by temperature change

people displaced by climate change by 2050 will be driven by temperature change

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Rising temperatures are forecast to be the most influential climate factor in shaping mobility and immobility in the Greater Caribbean region. As temperatures increase, labor productivity will decline, prompting people to leave home in search of new economic opportunities. By isolating the economic impact of rising temperatures, the model provides insight into where targeted adaptation measures might be crucial. The model only considers permanent movement (net migration over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility per pixel (5km by 5km), which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, due to temperature. Net climate mobility accounts for local, national, and international movement.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Data Interpretation

Rising temperatures are forecast to be the most influential climate factor in shaping mobility and immobility in the Greater Caribbean region. As temperatures increase, labor productivity will decline, prompting people to leave home in search of new economic opportunities. By isolating the economic impact of rising temperatures, the model provides insight into where targeted adaptation measures might be crucial. The model only considers permanent movement (net migration over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility per pixel (5km by 5km), which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, due to temperature. Net climate mobility accounts for local, national, and international movement.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Climate Risks

Temperature Change

Projections of the effect of temperature change on mobility

Total numbers leaving and arriving per pixel (local, national, international)

-10k

0

+10k

40

%

people displaced by climate change by 2030 will be driven by temperature change

35

%

people displaced by climate change by 2050 will be driven by temperature change

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Rising temperatures are forecast to be the most influential climate factor in shaping mobility and immobility in the Greater Caribbean region. As temperatures increase, labor productivity will decline, prompting people to leave home in search of new economic opportunities. By isolating the economic impact of rising temperatures, the model provides insight into where targeted adaptation measures might be crucial. The model only considers permanent movement (net migration over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility per pixel (5km by 5km), which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, due to temperature. Net climate mobility accounts for local, national, and international movement.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Middle Road

2030

Net

Middle Road

2030

Net

Middle Road

2030

Net

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