People
Mobile Young People
Projections of the climate mobility of young people
People
Mobile Young People
Projections of the climate mobility of young people
% more young people displaced than older generations per pixel
0.01
0.14
0.28
0.42
0.56
0.70
0.84
1.00
% more young people displaced than older generations per pixel
0.01
0.14
0.28
0.42
0.56
0.70
0.84
1.00
%
%
Of people displaced by climate change by 2030 are young people
Of people displaced by climate change by 2030 are young people
%
%
Of people displaced by climate change by 2050 are young people
Of people displaced by climate change by 2050 are young people
Regional Totals
Rocky Road Scenario
Data Interpretation
Young people are already on the move in the Greater Caribbean, many motivated by education and job opportunities. Climate change will accelerate these trends. By 2050, young people (ages 20-39) will out-migrate at higher rates than those over 40 in all Greater Caribbean countries. Young people will be overrepresented in cross-border migration flows to destinations such as the United States. By showcasing areas where youth out-migration might be the most dramatic, the modeling results assist communities in anticipating the implications of shifting age structures. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of young people that will move compared to older age groups, and the total count of young people that will move.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
Data Interpretation
Young people are already on the move in the Greater Caribbean, many motivated by education and job opportunities. Climate change will accelerate these trends. By 2050, young people (ages 20-39) will out-migrate at higher rates than those over 40 in all Greater Caribbean countries. Young people will be overrepresented in cross-border migration flows to destinations such as the United States. By showcasing areas where youth out-migration might be the most dramatic, the modeling results assist communities in anticipating the implications of shifting age structures. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of young people that will move compared to older age groups, and the total count of young people that will move.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
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People
Mobile Young People
Projections of the climate mobility of young people
% more young people displaced than older generations per pixel
0.01
0.14
0.28
0.42
0.56
0.70
0.84
1.00
%
Of people displaced by climate change by 2030 are young people
%
Of people displaced by climate change by 2050 are young people
Regional Totals
Rocky Road Scenario
Data Interpretation
Young people are already on the move in the Greater Caribbean, many motivated by education and job opportunities. Climate change will accelerate these trends. By 2050, young people (ages 20-39) will out-migrate at higher rates than those over 40 in all Greater Caribbean countries. Young people will be overrepresented in cross-border migration flows to destinations such as the United States. By showcasing areas where youth out-migration might be the most dramatic, the modeling results assist communities in anticipating the implications of shifting age structures. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of young people that will move compared to older age groups, and the total count of young people that will move.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
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Middle Road
2030
Middle Road
2030
Middle Road
2030