Mobility
Internal Climate Mobility
Projections of climate mobility within national borders
Mobility
Internal Climate Mobility
Projections of climate mobility within national borders
Total numbers leaving and arriving per administrative unit
-150k (Or Lower)
0
+150k (or Higher)
Total numbers leaving and arriving per administrative unit
-150k (Or Lower)
0
+150k (or Higher)
Million
Million
People displaced internally by climate change by 2030
People displaced internally by climate change by 2030
Million
Million
People displaced internally by climate change by 2050
People displaced internally by climate change by 2050
Rocky Road Scenario
Data Interpretation
Most climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean will be internal. Internal climate mobility in the model refers to the movement of people within national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Internal climate mobility is considered over two distances: local moves, within administrative units (such as provinces, departments, or states) and longer distance moves, across administrative units. In several small island-states that are composed of one administrative unit, movement only occurs at one scale. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility, which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, per administrative unit. Results are shown as the sum of local and long-distance moves.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
Data Interpretation
Most climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean will be internal. Internal climate mobility in the model refers to the movement of people within national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Internal climate mobility is considered over two distances: local moves, within administrative units (such as provinces, departments, or states) and longer distance moves, across administrative units. In several small island-states that are composed of one administrative unit, movement only occurs at one scale. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility, which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, per administrative unit. Results are shown as the sum of local and long-distance moves.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
Copy Link
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Mobility
Internal Climate Mobility
Projections of climate mobility within national borders
Total numbers leaving and arriving per administrative unit
-150k (Or Lower)
0
+150k (or Higher)
Million
People displaced internally by climate change by 2030
Million
People displaced internally by climate change by 2050
Rocky Road Scenario
Data Interpretation
Most climate mobility in the Greater Caribbean will be internal. Internal climate mobility in the model refers to the movement of people within national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Internal climate mobility is considered over two distances: local moves, within administrative units (such as provinces, departments, or states) and longer distance moves, across administrative units. In several small island-states that are composed of one administrative unit, movement only occurs at one scale. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as net climate mobility, which is the difference between those that will move out and those that will move in, per administrative unit. Results are shown as the sum of local and long-distance moves.
Data Modelling
The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).
For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.
Source
GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023
Copy Link
Middle Road
2030
Middle Road
2030
Middle Road
2030
