Mobility

Immobility

Projections of climate immobility

Mobility

Immobility

Projections of climate immobility

Total numbers induced to stay by climate change per pixel

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1K

10K

Total numbers induced to stay by climate change per pixel

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1K

10K

0.0
0.0

Million

Million

People immobilized by climate change by 2030

People immobilized by climate change by 2030

3.0
3.0

Million

Million

People immobilized by climate change by 2050

People immobilized by climate change by 2050

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Climate change will affect destination communities just as it will affect places of origin. Immobility captures the number of people who are forced to stay in place due to climate impacts on potential destinations, who would otherwise be likely to move in a world without climate change. When climate damages to utilities in potential destinations are higher than migration costs, migration to such places becomes less attractive and people are deterred from leaving their homes. Modeling results indicate that immobility will increase across the region as climate damages become more severe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the total number of people immobilized, or deterred from moving, per pixel (5km by 5km).

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Data Interpretation

Climate change will affect destination communities just as it will affect places of origin. Immobility captures the number of people who are forced to stay in place due to climate impacts on potential destinations, who would otherwise be likely to move in a world without climate change. When climate damages to utilities in potential destinations are higher than migration costs, migration to such places becomes less attractive and people are deterred from leaving their homes. Modeling results indicate that immobility will increase across the region as climate damages become more severe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the total number of people immobilized, or deterred from moving, per pixel (5km by 5km).

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Mobility

Immobility

Projections of climate immobility

Total numbers induced to stay by climate change per pixel

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1K

10K

0.0

Million

People immobilized by climate change by 2030

3.0

Million

People immobilized by climate change by 2050

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Climate change will affect destination communities just as it will affect places of origin. Immobility captures the number of people who are forced to stay in place due to climate impacts on potential destinations, who would otherwise be likely to move in a world without climate change. When climate damages to utilities in potential destinations are higher than migration costs, migration to such places becomes less attractive and people are deterred from leaving their homes. Modeling results indicate that immobility will increase across the region as climate damages become more severe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the total number of people immobilized, or deterred from moving, per pixel (5km by 5km).

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

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