People

Immobile Women

Projections of the climate immobility of women

People

Immobile Women

Projections of the climate immobility of women

% more women immobilized than men per pixel

0.01

0.14

0.28

0.42

0.56

0.70

0.84

1.00

% more women immobilized than men per pixel

0.01

0.14

0.28

0.42

0.56

0.70

0.84

1.00

0
0

%

%

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2030 are women

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2030 are women

10
10

%

%

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2050 are women

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2050 are women

Regional Totals

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Over the next several decades, climate change will continue to disproportionately impact women, widening gender inequality and contributing to gendered mobility patterns. The model indicates that women will be pushed to leave home at higher rates than men. They will also be more sensitive to climate impacts in destinations, inducing them to stay at higher rates than men. High rates of female immobility could mean that women are disproportionately exposed to increasing climate risks in origin communities. Modeling projections support gender-sensitive adaptation, development, and poverty reduction planning by anticipating places where women could be left behind. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of women that are immobilized compared to men, and the total count of women that are immobilized.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Data Interpretation

Over the next several decades, climate change will continue to disproportionately impact women, widening gender inequality and contributing to gendered mobility patterns. The model indicates that women will be pushed to leave home at higher rates than men. They will also be more sensitive to climate impacts in destinations, inducing them to stay at higher rates than men. High rates of female immobility could mean that women are disproportionately exposed to increasing climate risks in origin communities. Modeling projections support gender-sensitive adaptation, development, and poverty reduction planning by anticipating places where women could be left behind. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of women that are immobilized compared to men, and the total count of women that are immobilized.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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People

Immobile Women

Projections of the climate immobility of women

% more women immobilized than men per pixel

0.01

0.14

0.28

0.42

0.56

0.70

0.84

1.00

0

%

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2030 are women

10

%

of people forced to stay due to climate change by 2050 are women

Regional Totals

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Over the next several decades, climate change will continue to disproportionately impact women, widening gender inequality and contributing to gendered mobility patterns. The model indicates that women will be pushed to leave home at higher rates than men. They will also be more sensitive to climate impacts in destinations, inducing them to stay at higher rates than men. High rates of female immobility could mean that women are disproportionately exposed to increasing climate risks in origin communities. Modeling projections support gender-sensitive adaptation, development, and poverty reduction planning by anticipating places where women could be left behind. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the share of women that are immobilized compared to men, and the total count of women that are immobilized.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

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