Economic Opportunity

GDP Impacts

Projections of climate damages to GDP

Economic Opportunity

GDP Impacts

Projections of climate damages to GDP

GDP loss per pixel

-100%

0%

+100%

GDP loss per pixel

-100%

0%

+100%

0
0

%

%

Loss in gdp per capita by 2030

Loss in gdp per capita by 2030

10
10

%

%

Loss in gdp per capita by 2050

Loss in gdp per capita by 2050

Regional Per Capita Average

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Climate change is already causing loss and damage in the Greater Caribbean. As climate impacts accelerate, the regional economy will face some decline. Several countries, economic sectors, and people will fare worse than others. Modeling estimates of GDP impacts can inform policy priorities for inclusive and equitable adaptation, risk mitigation, and development. Forecasted economic decline in the region is a signal of the increasingly dire consequences of climate impacts and the needed urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the percentage decline in per capita GDP compared to a world without climate change.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Data Interpretation

Climate change is already causing loss and damage in the Greater Caribbean. As climate impacts accelerate, the regional economy will face some decline. Several countries, economic sectors, and people will fare worse than others. Modeling estimates of GDP impacts can inform policy priorities for inclusive and equitable adaptation, risk mitigation, and development. Forecasted economic decline in the region is a signal of the increasingly dire consequences of climate impacts and the needed urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the percentage decline in per capita GDP compared to a world without climate change.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Economic Opportunity

GDP Impacts

Projections of climate damages to GDP

GDP loss per pixel

-100%

0%

+100%

0

%

Loss in gdp per capita by 2030

10

%

Loss in gdp per capita by 2050

Regional Per Capita Average

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Climate change is already causing loss and damage in the Greater Caribbean. As climate impacts accelerate, the regional economy will face some decline. Several countries, economic sectors, and people will fare worse than others. Modeling estimates of GDP impacts can inform policy priorities for inclusive and equitable adaptation, risk mitigation, and development. Forecasted economic decline in the region is a signal of the increasingly dire consequences of climate impacts and the needed urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as the percentage decline in per capita GDP compared to a world without climate change.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Copy Link

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

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