Mobility

Cross-Border Climate Mobility

Projections of climate mobility across national borders

Mobility

Cross-Border Climate Mobility

Projections of climate mobility across national borders

Total numbers leaving per country

-30k (Or Lower)

0

+30k (Or Higher)

Total numbers leaving per country

-30k (Or Lower)

0

+30k (Or Higher)

0.0
0.0

Million

Million

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2030

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2030

3.0
3.0

Million

Million

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2050

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2050

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Cross-border climate mobility refers to the movement of people across national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Less people will move across borders than will move internally but climate change will reinforce flows to traditional destinations, primarily in North America and Europe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as total cross-border climate mobility, or people that will emigrate due to climate change, per country.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Data Interpretation

Cross-border climate mobility refers to the movement of people across national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Less people will move across borders than will move internally but climate change will reinforce flows to traditional destinations, primarily in North America and Europe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as total cross-border climate mobility, or people that will emigrate due to climate change, per country.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

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Mobility

Cross-Border Climate Mobility

Projections of climate mobility across national borders

Total numbers leaving per country

-30k (Or Lower)

0

+30k (Or Higher)

0.0

Million

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2030

3.0

Million

People displaced across borders by climate change by 2050

Rocky Road Scenario

Data Interpretation

Cross-border climate mobility refers to the movement of people across national borders that is motivated by the adverse economic effects of sudden- or slow-onset climate impacts. Less people will move across borders than will move internally but climate change will reinforce flows to traditional destinations, primarily in North America and Europe. This dataset compiles the results of the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model applied to two climate-development scenarios and two different time periods (2030, 2050). Results are shown as total cross-border climate mobility, or people that will emigrate due to climate change, per country.

Data Modelling

The Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model is a global spatial general equilibrium model, which is based on a quantitative simulation of the world economy. The model projects likely future patterns of mobility and immobility by considering historical and current mobility patterns in response to climate stressors. The model assumes the choice to stay or leave home is an economic decision: individuals decide to move when the difference between local utility values and utilities somewhere else exceeds the cost of moving between two given locations. The model only considers permanent movement (net flows over 20-year periods) and does not capture temporary or circular migration or short-term disaster displacement. When considering how the world might reach the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and prevent warming beyond 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes a framework that combines different possible global socioeconomic development futures, called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, called representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The model considers climate mobility under three of the five IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios that include different development outcomes for the Greater Caribbean region in tandem with global emissions projections. The model accounts for changes in population distribution resulting from the economic impacts of multiple climate hazards, including: land productivity (crop yields), labor productivity (temperature), coastal zone productivity and habitability (sea level rise), individual utility (disasters), and tourism (oceanic changes).

For more information on the Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model refer to Appendix 1 in the GCCM Report: Great Caribbean Shifts.

Source

GCCMI Greater Caribbean Climate Mobility Model, 2023

Copy Link

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

Middle Road

2030

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